September Rye Harvest Notes
Harvest in Canada is wrapping up, albeit a bit slower than average.
This past (2013-2014), we have seen rye exports out of Canada decrease by 38%. Domestic usage in Canada has also decreased by 19%. Because of these decreases, the carryout from this past crop year is now projected to be 49,000 metric tonnes. Movement of rye into the US is very slow, albeit steady. And despite weakness in the overall grain market, rye prices remain steady due to a continuing low supply.For the coming crop year (2014-2015), production is set to decrease by 13% due to weather related issues – lower yield and lower harvested area. There were two separate weather events in the main rye growing regions in Canada.The first was in late June. A weekend of torrential rainfall in southern Manitoba with reports of anywhere from 3-16 inches of rainfall reported decreased yield. The second occurred in Saskatchewan during the earlier part of rye harvest. We are seeing quality compromised in this area. Overall, the rye crop is mediocre at best in both yield and quality.Canadian rye prices are forecast to increase in 2014-15.In Europe, harvest has wrapped up and quality is not an issue.
This will keep prices in the US stable despite the issues in Canada.